{"shock": "Rente", "variation": "_perm", "synthetic": false, "definition": {"instrument": "rRenteECB", "instrumentDa": "ECB-renten", "shortDa": null, "changeDa": "+1 pct.-point (100 basispoint)", "changeSize": 1.0, "changeUnitDa": "pct.-point", "factor": 1.0, "delta": 0.01, "firstYear": 2030, "lastYear": 2129, "profileDa": "Permanent: st\u00f8det g\u00e6lder alle \u00e5r fra st\u00f8d\u00e5ret og horisonten ud.", "closureDa": "Finansieret: den beregningstekniske lukkeskat \u2013 et till\u00e6g til husholdningernes direkte skatter, ens i alle \u00e5r \u2013 justeres, s\u00e5 den offentlige nettoformue i 2129 udg\u00f8r samme andel af BNP som i grundforl\u00f8bet (DREAMs lukkeskat-reaktion). Saldoen holdes alts\u00e5 ikke \u00e5r for \u00e5r.", "lukningShare": -1.92306, "dreamDa": "Samme instrument, st\u00f8rrelse og st\u00f8d\u00e5r (2030) som DREAMs standardst\u00f8d \"Rente\" (rRenteECB + 0,01). Alle danske renter i MAKRO er bygget oven p\u00e5 ECB-renten (obligations-, bank- og virksomhedernes afkastkrav), s\u00e5 gennemslaget er 1:1; udenlandske priser er u\u00e6ndrede, s\u00e5 det er reelt en permanent h\u00f8jere realrente.", "seriesKey": "rRenteECB", "solver": "MAKROskops frie l\u00f8ser (Newton, fuld horisont)", "linearityDa": "M\u00e5lt p\u00e5 et 10-\u00e5rs udsnit: ved 64 pct. af st\u00f8det afviger modellen 1,1 pct. (median) fra line\u00e6r skalering; BNP 0,8 pct., besk\u00e6ftigelse 0,9 pct., boligpriser 1,8 pct., enkelte branche-serier op til 6 pct. af effekten.", "maxScale": null, "maxScaleDa": null, "explainerDa": "En varigt h\u00f8jere ECB-rente sl\u00e5r 1:1 igennem p\u00e5 alle danske renter. Den offentlige sektor er nettokreditor med en formue, der vokser kraftigt i grundforl\u00f8bet, s\u00e5 den h\u00f8jere rente giver store renteindt\u00e6gter p\u00e5 sigt \u2013 og finansieringen giver dem tilbage fra starten: lukkeskatten s\u00e6nker husholdningernes skat med ca. 1,9 pct. af BNP om \u00e5ret, og saldoen ligger ca. 2\u20133 pct. af BNP lavere frem mod 2080. Skattelettelsen vender forbruget: det stiger 1,3 pct. i 2030 og ca. 4 pct. i 2050, og boligpriserne falder kun de f\u00f8rste par \u00e5r. Dyrere kapital holder investeringerne nede (erhvervsinvesteringerne op til 11 pct.), og med en mindre kapitalbeholdning falder eksporten og BNP gradvist \u2013 BNP op til knap 1 pct. Besk\u00e6ftigelsen r\u00f8rer sig n\u00e6sten ikke.", "channel": ["rRenteObl>pBolig>qC>qBNP", "rRenteObl>qI>qBNP", "qBNP>nL>ledighedsgrad>vhW>pC", "qBNP>saldo2bnp"]}, "deviations": {"qBNP": [null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0592198, -0.177912, -0.294293, -0.394351, -0.486487, -0.575533, -0.660615, -0.737872, -0.804712, -0.860571, -0.904356, -0.937668, -0.960479, -0.974806, -0.983789, -0.987931, -0.988719, -0.986347, -0.981592, -0.97586, -0.969029, -0.961796, -0.954803, -0.945881, -0.937286, -0.92741, -0.916792, -0.906248, -0.897441, -0.887789, -0.876875, -0.865491, -0.855267, -0.84184, -0.826117, -0.812917, -0.800343, -0.788432, -0.772631, -0.75892, -0.744491, -0.729974, -0.711576, -0.695291, -0.681271, -0.666441, -0.647788, -0.633345, -0.617914, -0.60173, 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